Monthly Observations – May 2026.
Staple food price movement in Uganda during May 2026 was shaped by a confluence of global and domestic factors. On the external side, the Middle East conflict drove sharp increases in fuel and fertilizer costs, while maritime trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz tightened fertilizer availability.
On the domestic side, early season harvests partially moderated price pressures for key staples, and cross-border inflows from Tanzania provided additional price relief. Domestic policy interventions – specifically the urban demolition program introduced additional demand-side disruptions that affected both consumption and trade in the poultry and milling sectors.
The net effect was a mixed price environment broadly rising costs for fuel and fertilizer, offset by seasonal supply increases and competitive import prices for certain food commodities.
- Seasonal harvest and increased domestic supply
Although May typically falls within an off-season period characterized by elevated prices, this year saw early harvests for key staples notable beans and groundnuts. There are strong indications that the maize harvest will also arrive earlier than usual supported by favourable rain distribution across producing regions. A significant volume of commodities is expected to reach the market in June.
Beans prices declined to as low as Ugx.2300/kg at wholesale with notable high supply volumes recorded in Kampala towards the end of the month. In the principal production districts of Hoima, Kiboga, Mubende, Kibaale and Kyankwanzi where harvesting is currently underway, the natural increase in domestic supply exerted downward pressure on prices.
- Rising Fuel and Transport costs
As a net importer of Petroleum products, ahead of its anticipated domestic fuel production, Uganda experienced significant fuel price increases in May. These increases were largely attributable to supply disruptions arising from the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, which has materially affected global oil supplies and, in particular impacted transport operators.
Retail fuel shortages were reported at some fuel stations further intensifying price pressure. During May, pump prices increased by approximately 84% relative to the previous month, with Petrol reaching Ugx.6400/litre and Diesel Ugx.6200/litre in Kampala. Prices recorded outside the central business district were generally higher. These elevated fuel costs were passed directly through the supply chain feeding into the commodity price at every stage.
- Rising fertilizer prices: Global conflicts and the Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
As an importer of fertilizer, Uganda has been adversely affected by global supply disruptions stepping from the impact of international conflict on maritime tread through the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have significantly increased transport costs and reduced the availability of fertilizer, with anticipated spill-over effect on global food prices.
During May, the following wholesale price movements were recorded:
- DAP: increased by 88.6% from Ugx.195,000 to Ugx.220,000 per 50 kg bag
- Urea: increased by 88.8% from Ugx.160,000 to Ugx.180,000 per 50 kg bag
- NPK 17-17-17: rose marginally by 10% from Ugx.140,000 to Ugx.150,000 per 50 kg bag
DAP and Urea were reported critically scarce while NPK 17 17 17 remained generally available in the market.
- Imports from Tanzania
During May, the Ugandan trading community received cross-border commodity influx from Tanzania including Super rice, maize grain, cassava chips, beans and ground nuts all of which are significant components of Uganda’s food basket. A substantial increase in the supply of Super rice contributed to a notable decline in rice price in Kampala and the surrounding Central region.
Grade One rice price declined from Ugx.4500/kg to Ugx.3800//kg wholesale price, while lower grade Tanzanian rice was offered at Ugx,3200/kg. Tanzania maize grain was also available at a competitive price of Ugx.1350/kg, compared to Ugx.1400/kg for Ugandan grain. These imports served as a moderating force on domestic prices for the affected commodities throughout the month.
Tanzania’s relatively low fuel costs supported by a government diesel subsidy, enhanced the competitiveness of Tanzania traders in supplying rice, maize and other staples into Uganda, further contributing to price stabilization.
- Impact of Urban Demolitions on Consumption and Trade
The government demolition of buildings and informal structures across urban and peri-urban centres earlier in the year continued to affect consumption patterns in May. Many small-scale enterprises lost working capital and operational continuity as a direct consequence of the clearances. The impact was particularly pronounced in the poultry and food service sectors as numerous eating establishments that had been operating informally were forced to cease trading.
The reduction in active food outlets led to a corresponding decline in demand for chicken which in turn negatively affected demand for maize bran, currently prices at Ugx.600-620/kg. In response to reduced margins, millers shifted to cheaper Tanzanian grain and curtailed maize flour production, with plans to resume fuller operations in June when the domestic maize harvest commences.