Weekly Market Outlok

Market Outlook Report: Week 13.

Nakawa Market (Kampala)

In the week leading up to Easter, Nakawa market experienced a surge in commodity prices driven by high consumer demand for the festive season. Despite increased deliveries of perishables—including matooke, Irish potatoes, and groundnuts—sellers maintained high prices to capitalize on rapid demand. While staple commodities remained relatively stable, matooke prices rose due to high demand. Prices for fresh produce are expected to normalize following the holiday period.

Kabarole District

The western region is currently experiencing an off-season. Bean prices remained notably high, with relief expected in late April when harvests from swamp-irrigated farms in Kichwamba and Harugongo enter the market. Maize grain demand was low, as stockists are hoarding old stock to maximize profits ahead of the first harvest season in June. Other commodities, including sorghum, millet, groundnuts, and soy beans, maintained stable supply and prices.

Agricultural Inputs (Fertilizer Trends)

Production estimates for the year are threatened by rising production costs, particularly for fertilizers. High prices for NPK 17-17-17 and DAP, driven by reduced supply due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, are impacting input accessibility. This increase in production costs is expected to reduce net revenue for farmers.

Busia Border Market

Busia registered steady inflows of cereals and grains from across the country. Demand for maize from Kenya was low, as the market was saturated with supplies from Ethiopia and Tanzania. However, demand for beans was strong, particularly for the Teso sub-region. Other commodities in demand included sorghum, millet, green grams, groundnuts, soy beans, and cassava chips. New harvests from Kasese and Buhwezu are expected to bolster supply in late April and mid-June, respectively.

Katuna Border & Regional Supply

The Katuna border saw consistent inflows of sorghum, beans and potatoes from Rwanda. Sweet potato supply was high, with 100kg bags trading at UGX 50,000, while Irish potatoes were priced at UGX 1,700/kg.

Production Forecast

Early and well-distributed rains since February indicate a promising first seasonal harvest. These favorable weather conditions, particularly in Western Uganda, are expected to cause a drop in maize grain prices by the end of April.

Mukono Market

Mukono market, relying on supply chain inputs from Kalerwe, Nakawa, and Kisenyi, reported price trends heavily influenced by these major hubs. Heavy rains have led to difficult road conditions, increasing transportation costs.

Iganga District

Iganga recorded normal to above-normal rainfall, allowing farmers to proceed with weeding. However, strict clearing of roadside vendors and structures led to significant business disruptions. Due to Easter preparations, fresh bean prices (Masavu, Yellow, Nambale) rose significantly. Additionally, local rice increased to UGX 4,000/kg, and Tanzanian Super rice rose to UGX 6,000/kg. Fertilizer prices (DAP, NPK) remained high.

Nabilatuk District (Karamoja)

Commodity prices in Nabilatuk remained high, driven by increased fuel costs affecting transport. While white beans are sourced from outside the region, fresh food supplies from the Teso, Sebei, and Bugisu sub-regions are arriving steadily. Local farming activity is high, supported by relative peace in the Karamoja sub-region.

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