This report presents key observations on commodity, fuel, fertilizer, and regulatory developments recorded in the Ugandan market during June 2026. It highlights the principal drivers of price movement across staple food crops, energy products, and agricultural inputs, and outlines emerging risks to food security in select regions.
1. Drivers of Change
1.1 Commodity Price Declines as Harvest Intensifies
The peak of the first harvest season continued through June, resulting in increased crop deliveries to major markets across the country. Staples recording notable supply gains, particularly in Kampala, included beans, maize, millet, sorghum, groundnuts, matooke, Irish potatoes, and onions. Prices are expected to continue declining into July, although the erratic timing and distribution of the March-to-May rains, followed by below-average precipitation, has caused localised yield shortfalls.
Price Trends
Beans: Wholesale prices in Kampala fell to UGX 2,200–2,600 per kilogram, depending on variety. In key production areas, Hoima, Mubende, Kibaale, Kiboga, and Kyankwanzi districts. Farmgate prices declined to UGX 1,800–2,300 per kilogram. Rural aggregators and stockists are reported to be holding stock in anticipation of more favourable margins ahead of the next planting season.
Maize: The Kampala buying price declined to UGX 1,000–1,050 per kilogram, while older stock traded slightly higher at UGX 1,150 per kilogram in the Kisenyi market, Kampala. The national average farmgate price stood at UGX 800–900 per kilogram, which in turn marginally lowered the Kampala wholesale price of maize flour to UGX 2,000 per kilogram.
Other Staples: Newly harvested millet from the Eastern and Northern regions traded at UGX 2,200 per kilogram in Kampala. Red Beauty groundnuts sourced specifically from the Busoga region were offered at UGX 4,200–4,500 per kilogram.
Busia Regional Border Produce Hub
Prices at the Busia border produce market remained broadly stable in June but faced reduced demand from Kenyan buyers. Local grain and cereal prices were less competitive than those in neighbouring regional markets, resulting in slower trading activity. Uganda’s newly harvested crop was further undercut by earlier-harvested supply from Tanzania, which reached the market ahead of local produce.
Grain prices at the border fell to UGX 960 per kilogram, while wholesale bean prices were recorded as follows: yellow beans at UGX 2,425 per kilogram (KES 86), Nambale K20 at UGX 2,256 per kilogram (KES 80), and Wailimu beans at UGX 2,086 per kilogram (KES 74).
Regional Outlook — East Africa
Concern is mounting across the East African region over expanding rainfall deficiency. Growing conditions, however, remain favourable in central Kenya and in the bimodal-rainfall regions of northern and north-eastern Tanzania. Forecasts point to a likely continuation of dry conditions across Uganda through the July–September period.
Acholi Sub-Region
In the Acholi sub-region, particularly the Nwoya-to-Gulu corridor, the seasonal crop has been reported as stressed and strained due to the rainfall irregularities noted above, which are expected to result in reduced yields and, in some areas, total crop failure. Harvesting in this region is expected to be delayed, with activity likely commencing in July or August.
Drought and Hunger Crisis — Karamoja Region
Severe drought and a widening hunger crisis continue to devastate the Karamoja region, with multiple fatalities reported. Crop failure caused by insufficient rainfall has driven pronounced price volatility. Kotido district has been particularly hard hit, recording low or failed production of sorghum, maize, beans, and sunflower.
Food security in the region remains fragile, with communities severely affected by the prolonged dry spell. Local markets are heavily reliant on supply routes from Mbale, Sironko, and Kapchorwa. Modest price increases were recorded for perishables sourced from outside the district, including Irish potatoes, beans, and cassava. Livestock prices, meanwhile, are expected to decline owing to oversupply, as communities sell cattle for essential goods to buyers travelling from Soroti, Kween, Bulambuli, and Amudat.
Inflation Data
According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, food crop prices fell by 2.4%, led by declines in matooke, beans, Irish potatoes, onions, and maize grain — consistent with seasonal supply patterns.
1.2 Fuel and Energy Cost Increases
Rising fuel and transport costs were a primary driver of commodity price movements in June. Pump prices increased across the board, and in a notable reversal, diesel was priced higher than petrol. Diesel rose from UGX 6,200 per litre in May to UGX 6,599 per litre in June, while petrol moved from UGX 6,400 per litre in May to UGX 6,499 per litre in June.
Officials at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development indicated that, despite a modest easing of global crude prices, domestic pump prices would not adjust immediately. This is attributed to the Uganda Oil Company having already procured fuel stock at higher prices, creating a lag between movements in global crude prices and their reflection at the pump.
1.3 Fertilizer Price Fluctuations
Wholesale prices for solid fertilizers showed mixed trends during June:
| Fertilizer | May 2026 (per 50kg bag) | June 2026 (per 50kg bag) | Movement |
| DAP | UGX 220,000 | UGX 200,000 | ▼ Decrease |
| Urea | UGX 180,000 | UGX 200,000 | ▲ Increase |
| NPK 17-17-17 | UGX 150,000 | UGX 135,000 | ▼ Decrease |
1.4 Policy and Regulatory Developments
Fuel Excise Duty Amendment
The Tax Amendment Bill 2026, effective 1 July, is expected to affect fuel pump prices nationally. The proposed Excise Duty Bill sets revised rates of UGX 1,750 per litre for petrol and UGX 1,430 per litre for diesel. Unless oil marketing companies elect to absorb all or part of the increase, fuel prices are likely to rise from the start of the new financial year. (Source: MRT Tax)
Compiled by: Luwandagga David K