| UGANDA AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETSMarket OutlookJuly 2026The first-season harvest peaks nationwide, pulling grain prices down across most regions — while beans tighten, fuel costs bite, and Karamoja’s drought deepens.REPORTING PERIOD — JULY 2026 | COMPILED BY LUWANDAGGA DAVID K |
| MAIZE (Kampala) 950/kg ▼ • BEANS 2,700–3,500/kg ▲ • GROUNDNUTS 4,500–5,000/kg ▲ • SORGHUM 1,100–1,200/kg ▼ • DIESEL 6,100–6,550/L ▲ • PETROL 6,550–6,700/L ▲ • UREA 220,000/50kg ▲ • DAP 180,000–200,000/50kg ■ • NPK 17-17-17 140,000/50kg ■ |
SECTION 01
Drivers of Change
Uganda’s staple food markets moved on six overlapping forces this month — a harvest surge, uneven early-season rainfall, cross-border substitution, and a deepening drought in the northeast.
1.1 Post-Harvest Supply Surge
The first-season harvest is now underway nationwide, including in the Northern Region and the far-western districts of Kyotera and Rakai, which received rainfall later than other areas and are only now registering fresh grain on local markets.
Maize grain farmgate prices declined to UGX 800–900/kg in Lira and UGX 900–1,000/kg in Rakai District, mirroring drops already reported across other regional markets. In Kampala’s central market, maize fell to UGX 950/kg, while at the Busia produce hub — Uganda’s main food-export border post to Kenya — it traded at UGX 1,029/kg (KES 36). Trading volumes there stayed low, as Kenyan buyers turned to cheaper Tanzanian maize instead.
| MAIZE · KAMPALA▼ 950 UGX/kg | BEANS · WHOLESALE▲ 2,700–3,500 UGX/kg | GROUNDNUTS · WHOLESALE▲ 4,500–5,000 UGX/kg |
The bean season has wound down, with remaining stock now held by rural aggregators and downstream stockists. Wholesale bean prices rose from UGX 2,200–2,600/kg to UGX 2,700–3,500/kg, depending on variety and quality — even as bean sales to Kenya stayed weak, undercut by cheaper regional alternatives. Dry cassava chips from Tanzania (via Mutukula) and K20 long beans from Kenya both found ready buyers in the Teso and Karamoja sub-regions at prices below the domestic harvest. Groundnut prices, meanwhile, climbed to UGX 4,500–5,000/kg on added supply from the Northern Region and Busoga.
1.2 Favourable Rainfall Earlier in the Season
Farmers who planted early — particularly across the Central and Western regions — are now harvesting well. This explains the sharper price declines in Hoima, Kibaale, Kiboga, Kyankwanzi, Mubende, and Masindi, where maize and bean yields outperformed other production areas. Groundnut and sorghum prices eased to UGX 4,500–4,800/kg and UGX 1,100–1,200/kg respectively across Busoga and parts of the west, reflecting the same early-season rainfall advantage.
1.3 Domestic Supply Reducing Cross-Border Deliveries
Local harvests are displacing imports. Uganda’s bean harvest has made Tanzanian bean imports largely uncompetitive on quality and price, while domestic groundnut supply from Busoga and Acholi has done the same to imports from Tanzania and Malawi via Mutukula. Cassava chips are the exception — Tanzanian supply remains in strong demand locally.
1.4 Cross-Commodity Substitution Effect
An abundant Matooke supply out of the Greater Mbarara region has pulled retail prices down and dampened demand for maize flour, as households — especially in peri-urban areas — shift to the cheaper cooking banana. This substitution is expected to hold until the Matooke season itself winds down.
1.5 Global and regional price Context.
| INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARKGlobal maize prices eased on strong U.S. crop prospects and a record Argentine harvest, while rice tightened on limited supply — a backdrop that reinforces Uganda’s own oversupply-driven softness in maize (FEWS NET). Regionally, maize still trades highest in Kenya (USD 378/MT), Uganda (USD 352/MT), and Zimbabwe (USD 348/MT); Malawi is lowest at USD 174/MT, below the international benchmark (AMO Report). |
1.6 Drought Effect in Underserved areas -Karamoja.
| REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY RISKKaramoja’s uni-modal rains have stayed persistently dry and hot, driving crop stress and outright yield failure. Relief distributions — 20kg of maize flour and 10kg of red beans per household — were carried out by the Uganda Police Force and UPDF. The rainfall deficit, ongoing since April, is forecast to persist through September, leaving little room for recovery; the region is now recording the country’s highest grain and cereal prices. |
SECTION 02
Fuel & Energy Costs
Fuel prices fluctuated through July. Diesel held below petrol, trading at UGX 6,100–6,550/litre, while petrol ranged from UGX 6,550–6,700/litre. Pump prices stayed elevated all month as the newly effective UGX 200/litre excise duty — in force since 1 July — added fresh upward pressure right from the start of the period.
SECTION 03
Fertilizer Prices
Wholesale solid fertilizer prices showed mixed movement in July:
| Fertilizer | July 2026 Price (per 50kg bag) | Trend |
| DAP | UGX 180,000 – 200,000 | Stabilised |
| Urea | UGX 200,000 → 220,000 | ▲ Increase |
| NPK 17-17-17 | UGX 140,000 | Stabilised |
SECTION 04
Policy & Regulatory Developments
Four developments this month bear directly on staple food and input markets.
Extension Services Reform
Momentum built behind a new National Agricultural Extension Services Law, formally previewed at National Agricultural Extension Week 2026. MAAIF’s Henry Nakalet Opolot set out the ambition: lifting national food and nutrition security from 71% to 85%, and agricultural financing penetration from 11% to 15%, aligned with National Development Plan V.
Food and Agriculture Regulatory Authority Bill, 2026
Cabinet approved the Bill on 6 July at State House Entebbe, merging the National Drug Authority and UNBS’s relevant functions into a single regulator for food safety, agricultural inputs, and veterinary products — directly relevant to fertilizer, seed, and agrochemical quality control. It is one of 38 Bills on government’s 2026/27 legislative agenda, alongside the related Animal Diseases (Amendment) Bill, 2026.
Fuel Excise Duty — Now in Effect
The UGX 200/litre levy flagged as a risk in June’s outlook took effect on 1 July as planned, raising transport and logistics costs across the staple food value chain from farmgate to market.
Export-Led Agriculture & Coffee Traceability
Government confirmed plans for a coffee traceability system, alongside continued investment in irrigation, fertilizer access, agricultural financing, and extension — aimed at strengthening Uganda’s competitiveness in coffee, dairy, beef, and other export value chains.
| Market Outlook Report Compiled by Luwandagga David K · July 2026 |