AFRICAN MARKET OBSERVATORY (AMO): PRICE TRACKER

Welcome to the monthly food price tracker. This is an initiative of the African Market Observatory (AMO) of the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, at the University of Johannesburg, and with the support of the Shamba Centre for Food and Climate. It summarises key trends in prices in East and Southern Africa (ESA) for selected staple food products, focusing on highlighted areas.

Online version of the JULY 2026 PRICE TRACKER Key Developments

Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025 according to the latest UN SOFI Report. Yet the double effect of a strong El Ñiño event and fertilizer supply challenges pose a threat to food security across the continent
Several countries across ESA are preparing to build up maize stocks ahead of what is increasingly seen as an extremely strong El Ñiño event.
Kenya’s maize production faces a double catastrophe as a drought threatens to be followed by severe rains. Both are related to the extreme weather brought along by El Niño. In response Kenya plans to import a million 90-kilogram bags of maize to meet demand.
Regional urea prices remain elevated despite world prices returning to pre-conflict levels, of US$400/Mt, compared to US$1059/Mt in South Africa and US$975/Mt in Malawi as of July this year.

Maize developments

Figure 1: Maize prices, selected East African countries

1 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources.

Maize prices across selected East African countries have started to converge and are expected to decrease further given good harvests in the region.

Kenya saw prices steadily declining since May and July (US$318/Mt) was down 29% compared to the same month last year (US$447/Mt).

Uganda’s maize prices decreased by 23% month-on-month to US$270/Mt in July, converging with Zambia.

Tanzania’s good maize harvest has meant further declines in Dar Es Salaam prices in July to US$232/Mt to a level below Zambia and 38% lower than July last year. Maize prices in the southwest producing area fell below the USA international benchmark. The National Food reserve Agency announced maize purchases to protect farmers from the steep price declines.

Figure 2: Maize prices, selected Southern African countries

2 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Despite good harvests, maize prices in selected Southern African countries increased slightly in July, driven in part by purchase programmes of several national food reserve agencies.

While South African maize prices rose slightly to US$205/Mt, they remain below the International benchmark (July US$218/Mt ), a trend held since the beginning of the year.

The Zambia maize price rose in July to US$267/Mt. This compares to the floor price of US$381/Mt (ZMK 347/50kg) at which the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has started to enter the market. Maize prices are expected to descend again after the planned FRA purchase of 500,000 Mt and following the 13 August elections.

Malawi maize prices rose to US$209/Mt, in line with South Africa. The increase may partly reflect the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) purchase price of about US$225/Mt, based on the June parallel exchange rate. The NFRA plans to buy 217,000Mt of maize stocks to build a buffer ahead of expected El Niño related pressure on upcoming harvests. The government has cited the same risk in maintaining the maize export restrictions introduced in November last year.

The Zimbabwe maize price remained the highest in the Southern region at US$ 348/Mt. The country is also preparing for El Niño and its impact on food security by building a grain

reserve stock. The Grain Marketing Board is buying maize at US$364.75/Mt, above the market price.

Soybean developments

Figure 3: Soybean prices, selected East African countries

3 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources.

Kenya recorded the highest soybean meal price among the selected countries atUS$742/Mt in July, with markups upwards of US$150/Mt against Zambian prices.
- – Kenya’s mark up against Zambia’s price is too large to be explained by transport costs alone, with conservative estimates at US$90/Mt for large traders.
- – Tanzania’s soybean meal price was US$570/Mt and is competitively priced against Zambia with differences accounting for transport.
Prices in Kenya are not benefiting from regional supply in the same way as countries such as Tanzania, suggesting that cross border supply dynamics are not translating into competitive prices in the Kenyan market.

Figure 4: Soybean prices, Southern African countries

4 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

South Africa’s soybean prices were relatively stable during the second quarter of 2026 but have increased slightly from US$412/Mt in June to US$453/Mt in July 2026, despite strong soybean 2025/2026 harvest.
Zambia price fell in April to US$483/Mt at the onset of the 2025/2026 harvest and have remained stable since then at around US$505/Mt
Unlike Zambia, Zimbabwe’s soybean price went up in April to 545/Mt and has remained stable at around US$551/Mt.
Malawi soybean price is at US$534 also took a dip in April to 469/Mt but are volatile likely due to the parallel exchange rate used to convert local prices.Maize meal developmentsMaize is Africa’s most important cereal crop produced serving as a staple food for around 50% of the population in the region, primarily consumed in the form of maize meal (also called maize flour).Maize meal is available in different grades with quality largely determined by the sophistication of the milling machinery. Terminology varies by country, generally running from super maize meal (highest) to special maize meal, widely consumed in Uganda, Kenya and Malawi and roller mealie meal for which we have prices in Zambia. Maize fortification is mandatory in some countries, however, fortification costs have been found to be negligible.

Figure 5: Maize meal [1] prices, selected ESA countries (US$/kg)

5 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

[1] Notes: No VAT is levied on maize meal in any of the countries. In Uganda and Malawi retail maize flour prices are quoted per kg. Zambia roller mealie meal prices are calculated from prices for 25kg packs adjusted upward to take account of volume by 68% (average of spot ratios obtained from supermarkets). South Africa maize meal prices are from 2.5kg packs with an adjustment to per kg prices upwards of 8%. We use the terms maize meal and maize flour interchangeably.

South Africa’s maize meal prices remained significantly higher than other countries despite relatively stable maize prices, indicating limited pass-through from the raw maize price to the consumer product.
Product quality, pack size, and other factors such as retail and distribution costs may contribute to price differences.
Zambia’s maize meal prices declined significantly in July to below US$ 0.8/kg, narrowing the gap with Uganda, supported by improved maize availability, a stronger kwacha and lower fuel costs.
Malawi’ maize meal prices rose to US$0.56/kg in July, but remained the lowest among the region.Fertilizer developmentsFigure 6: Urea Fertilizer prices, selected ESA countries

6 – Source: AMO own calculations based on multiple sources; World Bank (Eastern Europe price); Grain SA (South Africa). Tanzania regulator (last price adjustment in May 2026 – other changes are forex related).

World urea prices rose sharply following the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, reaching a peak of US$850/Mt. By July, prices had fallen back to around US$400/Mt, returning to pre-conflict levels.
Regional urea prices initially followed the same upward trend as the world price, but they have not adjusted downwards to the same extent. This has left African urea prices significantly above the global benchmark.
South Africa urea prices peaked at US$1,215/Mt before declining to US$1,059/Mt in July 2026. Despite this decline, prices remain far above the world price.
Malawi urea prices peaked at US$1,145/Mt and have declined only slightly to US$975/Mt, remaining well above the world benchmark.
Tanzania urea prices were adjusted by the Tanzania Fertilizer Regulatory Authority in May and are at US$933/Mt, still substantially above the world price. Regional urea prices remain elevated despite world prices returning to pre-conflict levels, suggesting weak or delayed pass-through of global market movements to African fertilizer markets, possibly reflecting import structures, sourcing arrangements, shipping costs, or limited competition among major suppliers.
Procurement for the 2026/27 Southern African planting season is likely to take place between August and October. Unless prices adjust significantly, elevated fertilizer costs could reduce application rates and negatively affect yields in the next production season, threatening regional food security.