February Market Outlook.

Slow maize grain trading was reported at Busia border post produce hub, however, other commodities such as beans, cowpeas, millet, sorghum and soya beans were demanded by Kenyan traders. The low demand for maize grain at this market was due to the presence of cheaper maize & beans crossing from Ethiopia. Maize grain price dropped from Ugx.1316/kg (Ksh.47) to Ugx.1205-1232/kg (Ksh.43-44) at Busia over the last three weeks.

During the month of February, fluctuating and declining  market prices were reported. The 2nd seasonal harvest for 2025 continued into February and total annual production were estimated better when compared to 2024.   Unexpected rainfall in several locations affected the quality of grain due to high moisture content.  

According to the National Meteorological  centre, the central region received frequent afternoon showers while the western and eastern regions recorded  high wetter conditions and unexpected heavy rainfall due to climatic changes respectively.

The maize grain price in Kampala’s major market continuously  declined on a weekly basis from the previous month’s high of Ugx.1280/kg to Ugx.1230-1150/kg at wholesale throughout the month. A slight increase in maize production for the season was reported. In the production locations of the central region (Kiboga, Kyankwanzi, Mubende and Mukono) and part of the western region where maize price declined to Ugx.900-1000/kg wholesale.

Good supply of matooke was recorded during the month of February to most major urban centres. Supply was noted from western region (Ntungamo,Mbarara). The matooke markets in western region reported a plunge in price because of over supply. Similarly, reduced matooke prices were recorded in Kampala and its suburbs during the month rendering bunches at Ugx.15,000 to 35,000 depending on bunch size.

Transit traders in the matooke value  chain vended matooke to various trading centre in the central region where demand for matooke is high.

 An estimated 700-800 Mt of beans were purchased at Busia Border Post market daily throughout the month and delivered to numerous destinations in Kenya indicating urgent need for beans.Yellow beans were preferred at Ugx.3025/kg (Ksh.108) while short Nambale beans cost Ugx.2885/kg (Ksh.103).

Similarly, the beans price was recorded low at Ugx.2600/kg wholesale in Kampala although the much preferred Yellow beans cost more at Ugx.2800/kg wholesale. Supply was identified mainly from the western region which recorded cheaper bean price offer. High bean prices were reflected in the northern region and beans were delivered to the region from central/western regions such as Kampala and Hoima respectively. Gulu market recorded beans at Ugx.3500/kg while Arua at Ugx.3000/kg. Lira market also registered high price of Ugx.3000/kg at wholesale.

An unspecified tonnage of yellow, Rosecoco and Kidney beans was also delivered from Tanzania to Kenyan market due to the same effect (Lower offer price) than that offered from Uganda.

Some commodities were reported across the border post of Mutukula into Uganda. Yellow beans were offered at an equivalent of Ugx.2400/kg wholesale price at Mutukula . Dry cassava chips and super rice were also imported into the country from Tanzania  in volumes especially Super rice although at a higher market price compared to the previous month’s price off of January.

Some farmers opened their gardens and planted beans during the month of February usually referred to as early planters, however, others were skeptical about the continuation of the rains.

The availability of early rainfall in Jan/Feb sparked off high demand for solid fertilizers such as DAP & NPK 17 17 17 which was presumed the start of the 1st major planting season leading to rising market prices as high demand drives up costs.

During the close of 2025, DAP and NKP 17 17 17 fertilizers were reported scarce, however when new stocks were availed in the country, a slight increment in price was observed. DAP price increased from Ugx.150,000/per 50kg bag wholesale to Ugx.180,000-185,000 while NKP 17 17 17 also increased from Ugx.120,000/50kg to Ugx.130,000-135,000 per bag. Urea fertilizer price has been stable at Ugx.110,000/bag.   No market price data was collected in Karamoja region where uptake of fertilizer application is low.Apparently fertilizers were demanded highly and at a higher price compared in Jan /Feb compared to December prices last year.  

Major factors influencing price change during February were surplus from the  harvest season for a number of items including maize, beans, millet, groundnuts, soya beans, matooke, e.t.c that were reported reducing or stable in some markets.

The country’s agricultural policy will be heavily focusing on strengthening agri-finance, improving climate-resilient practices and preparing for the 2026-2030 sector strategy. Key developments include regulatory reforms for lending, promoting agroecology and managing potential 2026 election-related regulatory risks to ensure sector growth.  

At the policy level, Uganda government will be launching a revised National Trade Policy  and National Export Development Strategy  as it seeks to implement an ambitious tenfold growth strategy anchored on agro-industrialization, tourism, mineral development  and science, technology and innovation and creative industries. Trade will be the focus of this strategy because it links production to markets which in turn generates income and distributes wealth across the economy.

Farmgain Africa.