1. Busia Regional Border Market

1.1 Bean Market Performance

Strong regional demand for beans was recorded at the Busia border market during April 2026, with a significant number of buyers present throughout the month. Supply was sourced from Kenya as well as domestic production areas, particularly Uganda’s Western Region. Towards the end of the month, newly harvested beans entered the market at marginally higher prices.

Yellow bean prices were as follows:

Newly harvested yellow beans: UGX 3,335/kg (KSH 115)
Old-stock yellow beans (from Kenya): UGX 3,045/kg (KSH 105)

Other bean varieties recorded at the market:

Wailimu beans (newly harvested): UGX 2,900/kg (KSH 100)
Wailimu beans (old stock from Kenya): UGX 2,610/kg (KSH 90)
Nambale beans (old stock): UGX 2,813/kg (KSH 97)
Mixed small beans (old stock): UGX 2,320/kg (KSH 80)

Supply from Tanzania was delivered via the Mutukula border post and transited through Kampala before reaching Busia.

1.2 Maize and Cassava Trade

Demand for maize grain at the Busia regional hub remained subdued throughout April. The Kenyan grain market continued to source cheaper maize from alternative origins, including Ethiopia and Tanzania, thereby limiting Ugandan informal grain exports. Maize grain was offered in the range of UGX 1,363–1,392/kg (KSH 47–48), with approximately 50 metric tonnes or less traded informally through the produce market on a daily basis.

In contrast, trade in dry cassava chips performed strongly. Transit traders found favourable business opportunities supplying cassava chips to their Kenyan counterparts, where demand was high. Cassava chips were offered at UGX 1,537–1,595/kg (KSH 53–55).

2. Food Security Alert: Karamoja Sub-Region

Inadequate rainfall was reported across the extreme northern sub-region of Karamoja during April 2026, contributing to elevated commodity prices and growing food security concerns. Although the rainy season began in late March, rainfall ceased throughout most of April, causing significant crop wilting — particularly for sorghum and maize.

The districts of Moroto, Kaabong, and Napak were most severely affected. Farmers in these areas are expected to replant their staple crops once rainfall resumes. Given the disruption to local production, key commodities — including maize, sorghum, beans, and super rice — were sourced from Mbale District and delivered by transit traders at elevated prices, driven by rising fuel costs and constrained supply.

Commodity prices recorded in the Karamoja sub-region:

Maize grain: UGX 1,700/kg
Sorghum: UGX 1,600/kg

Livestock prices also rose in response to the deteriorating weather conditions, reflecting broader economic pressure on households in the region.

3. Fertilizer Prices

A marked increase in fertilizer prices was recorded during April 2026, with significant cost implications for agricultural producers. Retail prices for key fertilizer products rose sharply between March and April:

DAP (Di-Ammonium Phosphate): increased from UGX 3,000/kg to UGX 4,000–4,500/kg — a rise of 81 to 83%
NPK 17-17-17: increased by 83 to 86%

These price increases were passed on to end consumers, and it is anticipated that the volume of fertilizer sales will decline in response to the significant price movements. The increases were primarily driven by global supply disruptions and rising shipping costs linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

4. Rice Price Trends

A notable decline in rice prices was observed in April 2026. The retail price of Tanzanian super rice fell from UGX 5,000/kg to UGX 4,500/kg in Kampala and other urban centres, despite rising fuel and transport costs globally.

The price reduction was driven by increased supply from Tanzanian transit traders, who found Uganda a more profitable market given the prevailing off-season conditions for key staples. Maize grain, for instance, remained stable at a wholesale price of approximately UGX 1,350/kg. Matooke prices also remained elevated during the period.

5. Policy and Regulatory Developments

Two significant policy developments were recorded during April 2026 with potential impact on the agricultural sector:

The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) proposed the National Agricultural Extension Services Law, aimed at reforming extension service delivery to improve agricultural productivity and strengthen food security.
An agricultural budget of UGX 84.39 trillion was approved for the Financial Year 2026/2027, with a focus on agricultural modernisation, infrastructure development, and support for local food production.

6. Seasonal and Market Shocks

6.1 Rising Fuel and Transport Costs

Global fuel price increases, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, had a significant impact on Ugandan markets during April. The disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to sharp rises in global fuel and fertilizer prices. As a net importer, Uganda experienced domestic fuel price increases that raised transportation costs, which were subsequently passed on to consumers. Fertilizer prices are projected to increase by over 30% in 2026, posing a significant risk to future crop yields.

6.2 Domestic Tax Disputes

Trader resistance to newly imposed taxes on essential goods — including fuel, cement, cooking oil, and sugar — disrupted trade flows during April and created uncertainty over potential supply shortages. The proposed measures included an excise duty increase of UGX 200 per litre on petrol and diesel, as well as a flat excise duty on selected consumer and construction goods. These developments prompted traders to raise prices in anticipation of further cost increases.

6.3 Imports from Tanzania

Commodity imports from Tanzania played an important role in stabilising supply during April, particularly given the off-season conditions affecting local production. Transit traders delivered maize, super rice, dry cassava chips, yellow beans, Nambale beans, and groundnuts to Ugandan markets. The pricing of these imported goods was generally favourable to transit traders, given the low domestic supply and sustained market demand.

7. Conclusion

April 2026 presented a complex market environment shaped by a combination of weather-related disruptions, global supply chain pressures, and domestic policy uncertainty. Karamoja’s food security situation remains precarious following the failure of early rains, while rising fertilizer prices threaten to increase production costs across all farming systems in Uganda. The sharp rise in fuel prices — linked to global conflict — continues to push up transportation costs, affecting the competitiveness and affordability of key commodities.

Despite these headwinds, some stabilising factors were observed. Imports from Tanzania helped bridge supply gaps in the off-season period, and the decline in super rice prices offered some relief to urban consumers. The approval of a substantial agricultural budget and the proposed extension services reform signal positive intent from the Government of Uganda, though their impact on market conditions will take time to materialise.

Overall, market conditions in April 2026 point to an elevated risk environment for farmers, traders, and consumers alike, with the potential for continued price volatility in the near term.

8. Recommendations

8.1 Government and Policymakers

Urgently scale up humanitarian and agricultural support to the most affected districts in Karamoja (Moroto, Kaabong, and Napak), including the timely provision of seeds and inputs to enable replanting once rains return.
Implement targeted subsidies or import duty waivers on fertilizers to offset the sharp price increases and prevent a decline in input use during the upcoming planting season.
Prioritise the effective rollout of the proposed National Agricultural Extension Services Law to ensure timely and practical support reaches smallholder farmers.
Fast-track disbursement of the approved FY 2026/2027 agricultural budget to programmes with direct impact on food security and farmer productivity.

8.2 Traders and Market Actors

Traders operating in border markets, particularly Busia, should monitor cross-border pricing dynamics closely and consider diversifying supply sources to reduce dependence on any single origin country.
Transit traders supplying the Karamoja sub-region should anticipate continued elevated transport costs and plan procurement and logistics accordingly.
Stockpiling of fertilizers ahead of the next planting season, where financially feasible, may help producers mitigate the impact of expected price volatility.

8.3 Farmers and Producer Groups

Farmers in Karamoja and other drought-affected areas are advised to engage with local extension officers and relief agencies to access replanting support and alternative crop varieties better suited to low-rainfall conditions.
Given the projected increase in fertilizer costs, farmers should explore integrated soil fertility management approaches, including the use of organic inputs and improved agronomic practices, to reduce reliance on expensive chemical fertilizers.
Farmers with surplus cassava should consider targeting the Kenyan export market via Busia, given the strong and sustained demand observed during April.