During the month of January, 2026 the maize grain supply to the market increased maximizing the second seasonal harvest. The season concluded in the extreme western region parts of Rakai and Ssembabule districts where the grain was reported wet and in the process of drying. It was affected by the prolonged dry spell and this situation was demonstrated in higher grain price in major grain market due to limited supply. The maize price declined to Ugx.1120/kg in Kampala mid-month and took to a rise toward the end of January. Maize production locations such as KIboga, Kyankwanzi, Mubende and Hoima reported maize at Ugx.800-900/kg wholesale but later increased to the end of the month.

A lot of trading of maize grain was reported at the opening of the year in Busia border post market. A number of transit traders from Kenya bought maize from Uganda speculating that the supply could be stopped by the general elections. The maize price increased throughout the month rendered maize from Ethiopia cheaper than from Uganda rendering resulting in less maize purchase from Uganda. Maize price was reported increasing in other parts of the country.

Plenty of the beans were harvested much earlier than the maize and low market prices were reflected then. Supply to the market reduced generally towards the end of January reflecting high price as stockists hoard the beans in anticipation of higher margin as the schools first year’s term begins.

Matooke and other fresh commodities such as Irish potatoes continued to harvest throughout January. Cheaper prices were registered during the month especially in the peri-urban markets where demand is highest but also in the production locations of Mbarara and Kapchorwa districts.

High demand for fertilizer products was evident in major markets after receiving unusual early rains at the close of January in some locations. The other drivers for demand of fertilizer is the proceeding market prices for staples viz coffee and maize grain which had been high in the concluding season of the year.

Key Development

Drought conditions in short rains in November and December in Horn of Africa and parts of Kenya and rising maize prices in East Africa
Long-range forecasts uncertain with anticipated transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and June
Tanzania has good stocks and export potential, National Food Reserve Agency has over 500,000 metric tonnes (Mt) of maize and rice in reserve
Malawi ongoing forex crisis has meant exports of maize, speculation and falling maize prices with export ban now imposed

Maize developments

Figure 1: Maize prices, selected East Africa countries

1 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

Uganda maize prices increased 30% from December 2025 due to poor regional rains to be the highest in the region
Kenya prices increase with evolving food crisis as drought affects North of the country
Erratic rains highlight the need for investment in irrigation to improve resilience
Prices in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam converged as both consuming areas rely on maize from the grain basket in south west Tanzania
Kenyan government blamed maize hoarding, threatening to allow duty-free imports from outside the region
Kenyan National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) announced a new farmgate price of KES4,000 per 90 kg bag (US$294/Mt), higher than last harvest

Figure 2: Maize prices, Southern African countries

2 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Zambia high prices while there was a significant maize surplus in 2025 harvest reflects demand from East Africa and Zambia Food Reserve Agency (FRA) purchases of 1 668 thousand Mt
Malawi maize prices at parallel exchange rates are uncharacteristically stable during the lean season (October– March) so far and at US$245/Mt they are 20% below same period last year, despite a food crisis mainly in the southern deficit districts of the country
Malawi prices reflect export restrictions imposed, and government purchases with donor support of 200,000Mt from Zambia
Zimbabwe maize prices have been stable at US$350/Mt since November 2025 tracking although US$150/Mt higher than South African prices as, despite an improved harvest it is a net importer

Soybean developments

Figure 3: Soybean prices, East African countries

3 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources.

Regional prices are far above international benchmark USA prices (apart from in South Africa where soybean prices remain around US$400/Mt)
Kenyan prices increased from US$612 /Mt in December to US$721/Mt in January approximately US$140 above sources from Zambia and Malawi, indicative of increased trader margins between these markets
Increased demand for animal feed has pushed Kenya soymeal prices higher, with Uganda set to follow
Investment in the animal feed industry in Uganda presents an opportunity for farmers to expand soybean production with appropriate support.

Figure 4: Soybean prices, Southern African countries

4 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia have almost identical prices, as Malawi prices decreased to US$ 500/Mt, from US$600/Mt

Figure 5: Soybean production selected countries

Despite sustained high prices, production in Malawi and Zambia has remained lower than previous years
Poor farmer response to demand has meant soya scarcity has pushed new Malawi crushing and oil refining plant to brink

Vegetable oil consumer prices

Figure 6: Vegetable oil consumer prices, selected ESA countries

5 – Source: Own calculations based on South Africa Stats SA (CPI); Zambia Competition and Consumer Protection Commission and online supermarket prices; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and supermarket prices; Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) cooking oil index and supermarket prices

Vegetable oil consumer price comparisons show much higher prices in South Africa than in Kenya, Zambia and Uganda
Some of difference may be due to South Africa prices being for sunflower while other countries are for blended oils
South Africa prices are also 20% higher than sunflower oil in the UK where prices are equivalent to US$1.99 per 750ml.

Rice Developments

Figure 7: Rice prices, selected ESA countries

6 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources, Thailand price is from the World Bank.

Price gap between East Africa countries and world benchmark Thailand price continues
While the huge mark-up has been attributed to rising consumer demand for rice, limited local production and abundant global supply, this does not explain the more than US$600/Mt difference
Tanzania, the only major rice producer in the region with exports mainly to Kenya, is expanding with the development of a new rice mill
Kenyan courts have allowed government to go ahead with duty-free rice imports for food security reasons with three import phases of 85,000 metric tonnes each planned between March and May 2026
Rice prices in Uganda remain relatively high but have moderated to similar to Dar es Salaam

Common Beans developments

Figure 8: Common Bean Prices, selected ESA countries

7 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. Uganda average of rosecoco and yellow beans; Kenya rosecocco, yellow-green beans, red haricot, mwitemania; Tanzania red beans,yellow beans sugar beans; Malawi average of sugar beans and red kidney beans, converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Kenya and Uganda beans prices have remained under US$800/Mt significantly below Malawi and Tanzania

Fertilizer developments

Figure 9: Fertilizer prices, selected ESA countries

8 – Source: Own calculations based on multiple sources; World Bank (world price) and Grain SA (South Africa). Kenya based on retail prices from Africafert and KAMIS. Malawi* prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Global urea fertilizer benchmark prices remained relatively stable while prices in most countries in the region increased somewhat
South Africa prices are around US$100/Mt higher than January 2025
Uganda, Malawi and Zimbabwe prices are all around US$800/Mt for urea, double world prices
Malawi prices are valued at the parallel exchange rate, reflecting the ongoing foreign exchange crisis
In a move signalled as boost for food security, Kenya kicked off the fertilizer subsidy programme as prices have increased by around 12% since September .