Market Outlook Report: Week 13.

Nakawa Market (Kampala) In the week leading up to Easter, Nakawa market experienced a surge in commodity prices driven by high consumer demand for the festive season. Despite increased deliveries of perishables—including matooke, Irish potatoes, and groundnuts—sellers maintained high prices to capitalize on rapid demand. While staple commodities remained relatively stable, matooke prices rose due to high demand. Prices for fresh produce are expected to normalize following the holiday period. Kabarole District The western region is currently experiencing an off-season. Bean prices remained notably high, with relief expected in late April when harvests from swamp-irrigated farms in Kichwamba and Harugongo…

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March 2026 Market Outlook: Maize and Staple Food Commodities

Maize Market Trends and Regional Demand. Despite the tail-end of the second 2025 harvest season extending into early 2026, maize prices in Kampala did not experience the typical post-harvest decline. Prices bottomed out at UGX 1,180/kg in Kampala, driven by high initial demand. Mid-March saw the return of Kenyan transit traders at the Busia border post market, with daily purchases averaging 200 metric tonnes (MT) by the end of the month. Maize prices increased from a February average of UGX 1,205–1,232/kg (Ksh 43–44) to approximately UGX 1,392/kg (Ksh 48) at the border. Supply to the Busia border was fueled by the western region (Kamwenge,…

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AMO Price Tracker – February.

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Weekly Commodity Market Update: Rising Prices Amid Planting Season

As the planting season intensifies, commodity prices in Kampala and other markets are gradually increasing, with traders reporting slow business activity despite the upward price trends. Maize grain prices rose from Ugx 1,350/kg to Ugx 1,370/kg in Kampala. Wholesale maize flour prices also saw an increment, moving from Ugx 2,000/kg to Ugx 2,300/kg.

The market received new supplies of Yellow and Nambale long beans from Tanzania, trading at a wholesale price of Ugx 2,800/kg in Kampala. Local short Nambale beans were higher at Ugx 3,000-3,200/kg, while older stock of Yellow/Nambale remains cheaper at Ugx 2,600-2,700/kg in Owino and Kisenyi markets.

Super rice from Tanzania remains high at Ugx 5,000/kg  for grade 1.1, with lower grades ranging between Ugx 4,000-4,800/kg at wholesale depending  quality. Kaiso rice is holding a high wholesale price of Ugx 3,500-4,000/kg.Transit traders are delivering to other towns, with prices slightly higher depending on the distance out of  Kampala .Dry cassava chips from Tanzania registered an increase, costing Ugx 1,050/kg, while local supplies from Soroti are trading at Ugx 900-950/kg.

 Abundant supply has kept groundnut prices relatively stable. White/serenut-like nuts from Northern Sudan are selling at Ugx 3,800-4,200/kg, while red beauty groundnuts from the Busoga and Soroti regions are at Ugx 5,000-5,500/kg. Simsim prices remained stable, with a wholesale price of Ugx 4,500-5,000/kg in Owino market.

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Weekly Market Update: March 2026.

Maize grain prices in Uganda are experiencing a gradual upward trend as uncertainty surrounds early planting versus waiting for the main March-May rains.

In the central Kampala grain market, wholesale prices increased to UGX 1,300–1,350/kg, up from UGX 1,250/kg the previous week, with similar rises recorded in production areas.

Despite a recent slow down of the early rainfall, in many areas, established maize and bean gardens are in good condition, with maize reaching a meter high and beans at the leafy stage. Early planters may secure a good harvest if rainfall resumes within the next two weeks.

Regional Demand and Forecast: High demand from Kenya and South Sudan driven by anticipated adverse weather conditions is expected to drive up maize prices in the near future. Transit traders expect prices to hit UGX 1,800/kg if Tanzanian supplies decrease by April 2026.

Busia Border Market: Although initial sales were low in early March, the high demand for food to fill regional deficits is expected to cause rapid price changes.

Super rice Prices: Tanzanian super rice has recorded an increase to UGX 4,000–5,000/kg, with Grade 1.1 wholesale prices offered at UGX 4,800–5,000/kg.

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February Market Outlook.

Slow maize grain trading was reported at Busia border post produce hub, however, other commodities such as beans, cowpeas, millet, sorghum and soya beans were demanded by Kenyan traders. The low demand for maize grain at this market was due to the presence of cheaper maize & beans crossing from Ethiopia. Maize grain price dropped from Ugx.1316/kg (Ksh.47) to Ugx.1205-1232/kg (Ksh.43-44) at Busia over the last three weeks. During the month of February, fluctuating and declining  market prices were reported. The 2nd seasonal harvest for 2025 continued into February and total annual production were estimated better when compared to 2024.   Unexpected…

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January Market Outlook

During the month of January, 2026 the maize grain supply to the market increased maximizing the second seasonal harvest. The season concluded in the extreme western region parts of Rakai and Ssembabule districts where the grain was reported wet and in the process of drying. It was affected by the prolonged dry spell and this situation was demonstrated in higher grain price in major grain market due to limited supply. The maize price declined to Ugx.1120/kg in Kampala mid-month and took to a rise toward the end of January. Maize production locations such as KIboga, Kyankwanzi, Mubende and Hoima reported…

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AMO – 2025 Review of  Agriculture & Food markets in Eastern and Southern Africa

Food markets in Eastern and Southern Africa 2025 was a year of strong agricultural recovery across much of Eastern  and Southern Africa (ESA), yet these production gains translated only weakly into lower consumer prices We highlight how market structure, trade policy, and climate shocks interacted to shape outcomes for producers and consumers. The African Market Observatory  contributes data-driven analysis to deepen understanding of agrifood market dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and their implications for consumers and suppliers,  and our  input is being used across the region African competition authorities are playing an increasing role in promoting competitive, integrated food markets at national and regional…

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Weekly Market Update. No.5.

Slight commodity market price increase was registered in the 5th week as the month of February opened. Maize was offered at Ugx.1,250/kg in Kampala and was speculated to increase to Ugx.1,800/kg by the opening week of March, 2026 while in Busia, it cost Ksh.47 (Ugx.1,316/kg).

Transit traders at the Busia border post are anticipating the arrival of maize from Ethiopia, routed through Madera in northern Kenya, due to notably lower grain prices in that region compared to those offered in Uganda.

Beans were offered at an increment in price , Yellow beans at Ugx.3,000/kg while Nambale short beans at Ugx.2800/kg in Kampala’s major produce markets. Fresh supply of beans were received from Tanzania and Rwanda. Cassava chips and Super rice were also delivered from Tanzania at Ugx.900-1000/kg and Ugx.4,000-4,100/kg at  wholesale respectively.

Red beauty groundnuts from Busoga cost Ugx.5,000-5,200/kg while white serenuts from from Norhtern Sudan & Central Republic at Ugx.4000/kg

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Market Update – Busia and Kampala Produce Markets. Wk 1

The year opened with strong trading activity for maize and beans at the Busia Produce Border Market. An estimated 1,500–1,600 metric tonnes of grain crossed formally into Kenya each day after re-bagging. Demand for maize was exceptionally high, with good-quality grain selling at KSh 42.5 (UGX.1,194 equivalent per kg), while the lowest acceptable quality traded at KSh 40 (UGX.1180). Maize supplies originated mainly from Serere–Soroti, Lira, and the western districts of Mubende, Masindi, Kiboga, and Kyankwanzi. The Busia market remained very active, handling a wide range of commodities including green grams, millet, sorghum, dry cassava chips, simsim (sesame), groundnuts, soya beans, and beans.…

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December Market Outlook

The second seasonal harvest started in December. Typically, there are two grain price offers for the old and newly harvested grain at the season’s onset. The Old grain  price peaked at Ugx.1350/kg as new harvest phased out old stock grain, dropping wholesale price to  Ugx.1100/kg. Current supply registered high  moisture content rates. Maize grain was received from all production locations such as Hoima, Kiboga,Kyankwanzi, Kagadi, Kibaale, Iganga Mubende, e.t.c

The yield this season has been significantly impacted by the dry weather conditions especially during the 3rd & 4th quarter of the year. Harvesting is anticipated to extend into the following year, likely concluding in February 2026.The maize grain price is not expected to decline any further (usually low at Ugx.600/kg Farmgate price), however, the peak of the supply season is expected in mid-January,2026.  A reduction in maize yield is anticipated this season compared to last year’s second harvest. There is evidence to suggest that the northern region has experienced a more pronounced adverse effect than other production areas.

In Gulu, where harvesting has taken off, maize was offered Ugx.1200-1500/kg at wholesale. The maize grain price in the northern region is speculated to increase faster due to demand.

The region also registered harvesting of groundnuts,soya beans, simsim among other commodities.

Simsim prices dropped to astonishing Ugx.2000 per kilogram at the farmgate price in  Gulu and parts of Lira, while the wholesale price in Gulu main market stands at Ugx.4000 per kilogram.This decline can be attributed to an extraordinary influx of simsim and white groundnut supplies from Northern Sudan.Such an abundance clarifies the reduced market prices, particularly in Kampala, where simsim is recorded at a wholesale rate of Ugx. 4300 per kilogram. The price of Serenut (white) groundnuts has also fallen to Ugx. 3800 per kilogram at wholesale, whereas the red beauty groundnuts harvested from Busoga and the northern regions cost Ugx. 5000 per kilogram. Traders engaged in value addition by grinding or pounding groundnuts have reaped substantial profits through the adulteration of serenut and red beauty groundnuts. A kilogram of groundnuts that have been pounded or grounded retails at between Ugx. 7,000 and Ugx. 8,000.

The price of Super Rice remained high throughout December, driven by heightened demand associated with the festive Christmas season. Grade One Tanzanian Super Rice was available at wholesale prices ranging from UGX 3,800 to UGX 4,000 per kilogram. The price for Super Rice remained consistently elevated since November, following the regulated supply that was registered from Tanzania after their national elections.. In certain rural district markets, particularly in the northern and eastern regions inaccessible to Tanzanian haulers, local varieties of Super Rice were offered at lower prices due to inferior quality. Meanwhile, some traders provided Kaiso rice at a significantly reduced rate. Other local varieties have also been made available at more economical price. In remote areas such as the Karamoja region, Super Rice recorded steep prices; for instance, it was priced at UGX 6,000 per kilogram within the Kaabong district market, with deliveries sourced from Mbale

At the regional border post of Busia, a notable increase in maize trading was observed, particularly towards the close of the year. The seasonal supply commenced at the onset of December, with an estimated daily supply ranging from 900 to 1,600 metric tons, subsequently transported across the border into Kenya. An exceptionally high demand for maize grain was recorded in the lead-up to Christmas, reaching daily volumes between 1,200 and 1,600 metric tons throughout the festive week. It is anticipated that the grain prices at this cross-border market will peak prior to mid-January 2026. Nonetheless, various traders have speculated that, given the impending elections in Uganda during January, it could be prudent to procure supplies from Uganda at the earliest opportunity. Good quality maize grain was acquired at Ksh. 42-43 (Ugx. 1,176-1,204/kg).

An abundance of beans was initially harvested. In December, a slight reduction in supply was observed across several markets. Consequently, the bean prices registered a gradual increas as stockists opted to retain their stocks. At the Produce Border market in Busia, the volumes supplied dwindled in the final week of the year to an estimated 900MT daily, down from 1500MT. The price of yellow beans, particularly favored by consumers, was recorded at Ksh.98 (Ugx.2,744/Kg), while Nambale beans were priced at Ksh.86 (Ugx.2,408/Kg). Mixed beans and Kanyebwa/Rosecoco were available at an identical price of Ksh.68 (Ugx.1,904/Kg), and Wailimu Red beans were offered at Ksh.73 (Ugx.2,044/Kg).

Other markets also registered increasing beans price during the month of December and higher prices are expected in Janauary as  institutions such as schools stock for the opening term. 

Commodity prices have surged in the Karamoja region, where the onset of the dry season is beginning to impact the local community. Unexpected rainfall has occurred in some parts of the region, notably in Kaabong District. The market in Kaabong typically reports the highest commodity prices in the region due to steep transportation costs. Maize and beans were supplied from Mbale, where the second seasonal harvest for several commodities has commenced. Beans were priced at Ugx 5,000 per kilogram, while maize and sorghum were offered at Ugx 1,715 and Ugx 1,428 per kilogram, respectively. In summary, Nabilatuk District reported elevated prices for maize and beans, ranging from Ugx 1,200 per kilogram to Ugx 4,200-7,500 per kilogram, respectively. Moroto District, the administrative center of the region, recorded maize grain prices at Ugx 1,350 per kilogram.

The regional border produce hub at Busia, as of November, registered a substantial influx of beans being transported to Kenya. Approximately 900 metric tons of various bean varieties were delivered to Kenya throughout the month of December. Other commodities that garnered demand included dry cassava at Ugx. 840/kg, millet at Ugx. 2,380/kg, sorghum at Ugx. 1,400/kg, soybeans at Ugx. 1,900/kg, green grams at Ugx. 2,240/kg, groundnuts at Ugx. 6,200-6,300/kg, and sesame at Ugx. 3,700-3,800/kg.

Cooking bananas (Matooke) which is a delicacy in the central region was offered at an elevated price this December in Kampala ad other urban markets due to reduced supply from the greater Mbarara sub region. Additional supply from the eastern region (Kapchorwa/Mbale) that matures during the Christmas festive season did not register the usual supply. Matooke bunches were offered at Ugx.25000-70,000 contingent upon their size and quality; nevertheless, a notable surge in the purchase price of Matooke and other fresh commodities, such as Irish potatoes, was recorded.

November Market Outlook

Ugandan maize grain prices are seeing a gradual increase due to intensified purchasing by neighboring East African markets. South Sudanese traders established temporary bases in Soroti and other key markets during the closing weeks of the month, actively buying and milling maize to meet their requirements.

In the Western region, the Rwandan trading community is procuring agricultural products, including maize grain, matooke (plantains), and Irish potatoes, at competitive prices for delivery to Rwanda via the Katuna border post. Cross-border traders in Kamwenge secured maize at approximately Ugx. 1,120-1,130/kg, while others sourced produce further west in Kibaale, Mubende, Kiboga, and Kyankwanzi.

Harvest and Pricing Updates

The second seasonal harvest for 2025 has commenced. In Kyankwanzi, fresh maize grain wholesale prices were reported at Ugx. 800/kg, while older stock was priced at Ugx. 1,000/kg. The Busoga region, specifically Iganga, also reported newly harvested maize grain entering the market at a higher wholesale price of Ugx. 1,200/kg.

Commodity Prices by Region

  • Karamoja Sub-region (Moroto): Prices for maize and sorghum dropped from approximately Ugx. 1,285-1,300/kg last month to Ugx. 1,100/kg.
  • Kampala: The grain market maintained a stable price throughout November at Ugx. 1,060-1,080/kg wholesale. The availability of alternatives like cassava, rice, and matooke provided consumers with a wider, more affordable selection of food items.
  • Masindi: Recorded the lowest grain price at Ugx. 600/kg, indicating ongoing local harvesting.
  • Arua and Kabale: Experienced high maize grain prices, increasing to Ugx. 1,300/kg in the final week of November, as these areas rely on supplies from neighboring districts like Kasese and Amuru.

Other Staples

Millet: Wholesale prices averaged Ugx. 2,200/kg, largely due to harvesting in the Northern region. Limited supply from the Western region was offered at a slightly higher price of Ugx. 2,800/kgin major city markets.

Matooke: Prices were generally high due to the off-season, with sizeable bunches delivered to Kampala fetching between Ugx. 25,000-30,000. Kampala markets maintained the highest supply compared to other regional markets.

Rice: Stable prices were maintained for Grade One Super rice from Tanzania at Ugx. 3,800-4,000/kg, with regular supply resuming via the Mutukula border post. Other varieties like Kaiso were cheaper at Ugx. 3,000/kg wholesale. The local Ugandan Super variety continues to face stiff competition due to quality concerns.

Irish Potatoes: Supply reached markets nationwide from Kapchorwa, where harvesting is underway. This supply competed with the imported Kenyan Red Irish potato, preferred for fries, which cost Ugx. 100,000 per sack, slightly higher than the Kapchorwa supply.

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