Food markets in Eastern and Southern Africa

• 2025 was a year of strong agricultural recovery across much of Eastern  and Southern Africa (ESA), yet these production gains translated only weakly into lower consumer prices
• We highlight how market structure, trade policy, and climate shocks interacted to shape outcomes for producers and consumers.
• The African Market Observatory  contributes data-driven analysis to deepen understanding of agrifood market dynamics across sub-Saharan Africa and their implications for consumers and suppliers,  and our  input is being used across the region
• African competition authorities are playing an increasing role in promoting competitive, integrated food markets at national and regional level.
• Together with our partner Shamba Centre for Food and Climate we started publishing the Agrifood Anti-Monopoly Tracker with information on competition issues affecting African agrifood markets across  national borders.

Key developments in the Food & Competition space

Market concentration rose on the policy agenda

International and regional reports  increasingly highlighted concentration along agrifood value chains as a risk to food security, price transmission, and dietary outcomes:

• The UN’s State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World #SOFI2025 highlights food price inflation and its impact on food security and nutrition. Policy recommendations include improved market information systems.
• The latest EAT-Lancet Commission report includes highly concentrated market structures along food supply chains as a barrier to healthy, sustainable, and just food systems.  

Food security and competition policy gained prominence

Food prices and margins along the supply chains are studied by authorities:

• Food security featured prominently during the G20 hosted by South Africa. This related T20  policy brief recommended more effective competition policy to reduce market concentration in agrifood systems in Africa
• The South African Competition Commission is conducting a study on prices and margins for several staple foods in South Africa and comparator countries
• The German monopolies commission report found increasing levels of concentration in the food supply chain 

Increased scrutiny by competition authorities

Several African competition authorities launched or advanced market inquiries into staple foods and feed markets, signalling a shift toward more active market regulation.

• The Kenyan Competition Authority inquiry into the animal feed market found that high market concentration of feed suppliers contributed to increasing poultry and dairy animal feed prices. 
• The COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) linked its approval of a merger in the poultry market to conditions which limit concentration on a regional level. 
• The Zambian Competition Authority carried out an inquiry into the commercial poultry market.
• The International Competition Network’s Special Project on Food and Agriculture is building international co-operation across authorities.  

Key Agrifood markets dynamics

• Good harvests reduced acute food insecurity in Southern Africa: Improved production contributed to the removal of several countries from UN’s hunger hotspots watchlist
• Staple food remained high and volatile across  East and Southern Africa (ESA): Prices for  maize, soybean and rice remained elevated especially in urban consumption centres, despite regional surpluses
• Cross-border markets continued to function poorly:  Surplus countries such as Tanzania and Zambia were unable  to effectively supply deficit markets like  Nairobi, and Malawi and limit  price spikes.
• Trade restrictions amplified price risks: Export bans and trade controls imposed by Malawi and Tanzania early in 2025 risked worsening food price inflation underlining the fragility of regional markets
• Competition authorities increasingly focus on agrifood markets: Given their importance for livelihoods and food security, effective agriculture and food markets are an increasing priority for the COMESA Competition and Consumer Commission (CCCC) and national authorities

Impact of climate change on agriculture

Figure 1 : 2024/25 Rainfall

1 – Source : https://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/product/600/

• The shift from the strong El Niño of 2023/2024 to largely neutral conditions allowed Southern Africa to recover from the severe drought that affected the previous harvest.  
• The recovery of Southern African production  led to  the removal of several countries from the UN’s hunger watchlist.
•  As of September light La Niña conditions have emerged yet a return to ENSO neutral state is forecast with a 75% chance during the first months of 2026.

Maize Developments

Table 1: Maize Supply and Demand Balances in selected ESA countries (000s metric tonnes, Mt)

2 – Notes: Own calculations based on multiple sources: country  statistics, USDA FAOSTAT and  market insights by stakeholders. The data generally reflect marketing years.

• Zambian production more than doubled to yield a substantial surplus which could be exported to East and Southern African countries with deficits
• South African production also grew strongly although this is Genetically Modified (GM) maize and so most countries outside the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) will not import it

Figure 2: Maize prices in selected ESA countries (3-month moving average)

3 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

• Despite the regional surplus, prices in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam were extremely high through most of 2025, and around double world prices
• In April Kenya allowed non-GM yellow maize imports in view of the increasing  competition between animal feed producers and maize millers for the limited white maize stocks
• The gap between producing areas in south-west Tanzania and Dar es Salaam increased to over $100/Mt, far above reasonable transport costs
• Uganda prices have been very volatile, from lows of $200/Mt in 2024 to a high of $400/Mt in mid-2025, driven by strong cross-border demand from Kenya and South Sudan before easing  to $300/Mt later in the year as new harvests entered the market and regional trade flows stabilised
• The better rains in 2024/25 saw Zambia prices reducing sharply at harvest in April/May 2025 to $200/Mt, however, prices increased later in the year to $300/Mt

Good harvests, weak markets: the paradox

Figure 3: Maize prices in selected Southern African countries (3-month moving average)

4 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices in local currency converted using the parallel exchange rate as of November 2024, as discussed here

Given the divergence of the official and parallel exchange rates in Malawi we use the parallel exchange rate from November 2024 for the conversion of local prices into US$.

• Good harvests in Zambia and South Africa and somewhat of a recovery in Zimbabwe meant abundant maize in Southern African countries overall.
• Prices also reduced in neighbouring Malawi at the parallel exchange rate – at the official rate they were much higher. Malawi struggled with fertilizer supplies and a foreign exchange crisis, with close to 20% of the population facing hunger going into early 2026 and the country relied on US$45 million emergency food funding granted by the World Bank.
• Prices in Zambia increased later in the second half of the year after the export ban lifted in August, with prices more than 50% higher than at the harvest in April/May
• Maize production in Zimbabwe still fell short of national demand, despite improved harvests, with prices reflecting import costs from South Africa plus a margin, as import bans were lifted.

Maize meal developments

Maize is the most important cereal crop produced in Africa, accounting for 43% of cereal production in 2024 and is a vital staple food in most countries in the region. In Sub-Saharan Africa, white maize is usually milled and consumed as maize meal (also called maize flour) while yellow maize is commonly used for animal feed.

There are various qualities of maize meal, largely determined by the sophistication of the milling machinery. Terminology varies by country, generally running from super maize meal (highest) to special maize meal, widely consumed in Uganda, Kenya and Malawi and roller mealie meal for which we have prices in Zambia. Maize fortification is mandatory in some countries, however, fortification costs have been found to be negligible.

Figure 4 and 5: Maize meal [1][1] retail prices in selected ESA countries (US$/kg)

5 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

6 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

[1] Notes: No VAT is levied on maize meal in any of the countries. Adjustments have been made to take different pack sizes into account [See AMO Price Tracker July-2025]. In Uganda and Kenya retail maize flour prices are quoted per kg. Zambia roller mealie meal prices are calculated from prices for 25kg packs adjusted upward to take account of volume by 68% (average of spot ratios obtained from supermarkets). South Africa maize meal prices are from 2.5kg packs with an adjustment to per kg prices upwards of 8%. We use the terms maize meal and maize flour interchangeably.

• South African maize meal prices increased by 13% during the year despite falling maize prices on the back of a phenomenal harvest. Along with Botswana, Mmaize meal prices and margins over maize costs are by far the highest in the region.
• Zambia maize meal prices benefitted from a bumper maize harvest and reduced below Kenya and Uganda
• Maize meal prices in Uganda and Kenya moved pretty much in parallel yet Kenya  has the lowest absolute margin amongst the selected countries.

Figure 6: Maize vs. Maize meal prices in selected ESA countries (US$/kg)

7 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

• South Africa stood out as an outlier, recording low maize prices at US$0.24/kg, yet facing the highest maize meal prices, around US$1.02/kg, among the selected countries.

• The difference partly reflects the highly refined specification of maizemeal in South Africa, while other costs, such as retail and distribution, may be contributing factors

• In contrast, Kenya has relatively high maize prices but the smallest margin over maize prices, as the maizemeal prices are around US$0.69/kg, in line with Zambia and Uganda

• Specifications may play a part, Zambia’s maize meal price refers to roller maize meal, which is the most widely consumed product in the country although it is less refined than breakfast meal.

Soybean Developments

Table 2: Soybean Supply and Demand balances in selected ESA countries (000s Mt)

• South Africa’s soybean production recovered in 2025 (after poor rains affected 2024 production), exceeding the substantial local demand.
• Malawi was the next largest producer in the region with production sustained around 300th Mt and net exports to meet demand in Kenya and Tanzania where production is under 50th tonnes.
• Zambia’s soybean production in 2025 made a modest recovery following a steep decline in the previous year, but output remains far below past levels, which had exceeded 700th Mt in 2023.
• Uganda’s production remained stable and, with demand continuing to grow especially from the poultry sector, prices stayed high.

Figure 7: Soybeans prices in selected ESA countries (3-month moving average)

8 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024 as discussed here.

Data and networks empower entrepreneurs

• Prices across the region are far above international levels with the exception of South Africa
• Uganda recorded some of the highest soybean prices in the region despite having a small surplus overall. This means increased feed costs for poultry producers, limiting their ability to expand production.
• Local entrepreneurs continue to face persistent market access challenges such as securing reliable suppliers which limits their ability to consistently supply target markets such as Kenya. As a result, entrepreneurs often find themselves with stock they cannot sell, constrained by limited storage capacity, and sometimes forced to sell at lower prices, undermining profitability and growth.
• Kenya relies on imports and has seen prices decline somewhat, with supplies mainly from Malawi. The reduced prices follow the Competition Authority of Kenya Animal Feed inquiry released in March 2025 which pointed to major concerns with regional markets for feed inputs costing the industry US$ 23 million per annum.

9 – READ THE CASE STUDY

Figure 8: Soybeans prices in selected Southern African countries (3-month moving average)

10 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. *Malawi prices in local currency converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

• Zambian prices fluctuated around US$550/Mt and aligned with Malawi (at parallel exchange rates) as production in both countries reflected net surpluses in 2025
• Soybean pricing and production dynamics have far reaching impacts on poultry production and therefore food security in the region.
• South African prices reduced to US$400/Mt – among the lowest in the world – with the good harvests in 2025. This benefitted Zimbabwe which imports from South Africa
• The Market inquiry into the poultry sector conducted by the Zambian Competition and Consumer Protection Commission in 2025 (in which CCRED assisted) identified high levels of concentration and vertical integration especially in breeding stock, and soymeal as a key feed input, undermining competition in poultry and animal feed. 
• In feed the main firms ‘appear to engage in margin squeezing or strategic pricing to disadvantage independent feed suppliers and poultry producers’, while there have been exports at lower prices than being charged to local customers, with the association having had a role in monitoring exports.
• The CCPC calls for a regional probe into the concerns.  

Rice developments

Figure 9: Rice prices in selected ESA countries (3-month moving average)

11 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. Thailand benchmark price is from the World Bank. *Malawi prices received in local currency and converted using the parallel exchange rate from November 2024, as discussed here.

Import dependence keeps rice prices high

• The region relies on imports of rice as the only major rice producer in the region is Tanzania which produces around 2.5 million MT.
• While international rice prices fell sharply in 2025, reaching their lowest level in a decade due to strong global supply and the easing of export restrictions, prices across east and southern Africa continued to rise over 2025, even though rice consumption is increasing at a faster rate than any other staple food in Africa.
• In Kenya and Uganda prices were three times the Thailand international benchmark price.

Common Bean developments

Figure 10: Common Beans prices in selected ESA countries (3-month moving average)

12 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources

[6]  Malawi common bean price: average of sugar beans and red kidney beans.  Uganda: K132, rosecoco and yellow beans. Rwanda: RWR 3194 and RWR 2245.  Kenya: rosecocco, yellow-green beans, red haricot, mwitemania. Tanzania:  red beans – uyole 96, lyamungo 98; lyamungo 95, yellow beans -selian 13, njano uyole; sugar beans – masipenjele.

• Common beans are an important source of protein across the region, and generally include red, speckled and yellow-green varieties
• In the first half of the year, bean price levels in 2025 exceeded those recorded in 2024
• Prices in Kenya and Uganda moderated over the year to under US$800/Mt
• In Tanzania and Malawi prices have been above US$1000/Mt while in Zimbabwe prices were around US$1500/Mt

Fertilizer Developments

Figure 11. Fertilizer (urea) prices, selected ESA countries (3-month moving average)

13 – Source: AMO based on price tracker data from multiple sources. World price is from the World Bank.

High Fertilizer costs undermine yield potentials

• Fertilizer prices in East and Southern Africa remain significantly higher than global levels, raising concerns given their critical role as an agricultural input.
• Prices in countries like Uganda and Malawi continued to rise throughout the year, maintaining significant cost pressures for farmers
• Yields in Malawi suffered from insufficient fertilizer usage which is largely linked to Forex problems and will likely also affect the  2026 production.
• At the beginning of the year, Malawi’s Competition & Fair-Trading Commission (CFTC) issued interim orders to nine farm input distributors, including large regional fertilizer distributor ETG, instructing them to halt excessive pricing and unfair practices. The High Court later put the CFTC’s price controls on hold while the case is being reviewed, and there appear to have been no further developments.  

AMO contributions to Competition, Collaboration, and Food Security in Eastern and Southern Africa

•  Partnership with Shamba Centre for Food & Climate: The AMO in partnership Shamba provides competition analysis and capacity building to national and regional authorities including COMESA, CAK and the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) of Zambia
• Collaborations with regional and national competition authorities:  The AMO has undertaken studies such as the fertilizer and vegetable oils studies with COMESA Competition Commission as well as soybean and animal feed to poultry study in collaboration with the CFTC, CCPC and the CAK
• Impact of AMO collaborative research
  • The fertilizer study with COMESA has led to the Malawi’s CFTC launching an investigation into high fertilizer prices.
  • The soybean and animal feed to poultry study resulted in the Zambia CCPC and the CAK launching market inquiries; the AMO is part of the technical teams of both these market inquiries.
• Support for Competition bodies: The AMO provided  support for organzations such as the African Competition Forum and the International Competition Network (as highlighted above).
• Annual Competition and Economic Regulation (ACER) Week: CCRED hosted nine impactful ACER events featuring:  which comprises of targeted and the Symposium.
  •  Professional Training Programmes (PTPs): facilitated by leading academics, experts, and practitioners to empower participants with relevant skills and knowledge in the field.
  • Symposium:  consists of expert panel discussions on key topics and breakaway sessions for academic papers presentations
• Collaborations with MSM Businesses & Farmers: The AMO actively collaborates with small and medium businesses and small-holder farmers; we  conducted research for the Graca Machel Trust and partner with Community Agribusiness Partners on market insights
• Partnerships for Food Security: The AMO partners with like-minded organizations to promote food security across Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) such as Farmgain

African Market Observatory (AMO)

African Market Observatory (AMO)

The AMO is an initiative by the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development (CCRED) at the University of Johannesburg